Consensus forecast
Definition · Level 8 · Rates, FX & macro
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The median of economists’ forecasts for a data release. Prices already include it, so a number moves them by how far it lands from the consensus.
Example
Payrolls +275k vs +180k consensus: a 95k surprise.
Where Tradecraft teaches it
Level 8 · Rates, FX & macro, in the lesson “Macro data: the releases and the surprise”: The key US releases, what consensus is, and why only the surprise moves prices.
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