Dot plot
Definition · Level 7 · Futures, rates & macro
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Chart in the Fed's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showing each policymaker's view of the appropriate year-end policy rate for the next few years and the longer run.
Example
“The median dot shows two cuts next year.”
Rules and market figures change: check the current ones before relying on this.
Where Tradecraft teaches it
Level 7 · Futures, rates & macro, in the lesson “The Fed, policy rates & the curve”: Fed funds, FOMC, dots, hawks and doves, QE/QT, repo and SOFR, real yields, and reading the yield curve.
Related terms
- 2s10sThe 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, in bp: the headline gauge of curve slope.
- Breakeven inflationNominal Treasury yield minus the TIPS yield of the same maturity, i.e. the inflation rate at which both earn the same.
- Central bankThe public institution that runs a currency's monetary policy — setting the short-term policy rate, managing its balance sheet (QE/QT) and acting as…
- DovishLeaning toward easier policy (lower rates or more cuts) to support growth and employment.
- ECBEuropean Central Bank: sets euro-area monetary policy from Frankfurt, targeting 2% inflation over the medium term.
- Fed funds rateOvernight rate at which US banks lend reserves to each other unsecured.